[News analysis] N. Korea-US relations and inter-Korean relations don’t necessarily form virtuous cycle

South Korean President Moon Jae-in gives his New Year’s address at the Blue House on Jan. 7. (Yonhap News)

Moon’s New Year’s address acknowledges certain failings in 2019 approach to Pyongyang

South Korean President Moon Jae-in gives his New Year’s address at the Blue House on Jan. 7. (Yonhap News)

“The fact is that both South and North Korea prioritized North Korea-US dialogue after it got underway,” South Korean President Moon Jae-in said during his New Year’s address on Jan. 7. “Despite the impasse in North Korea-US dialogue, we’ve become more keenly aware of the need to devise a practical way to further enhance inter-Korean cooperation while continuing to work for the success of North Korea-US dialogue, given current concerns about losing ground in inter-Korean relations.”

Hitherto, the South Korean government has maintained a strategy based on the assumption that inter-Korean relations and North Korea-US relations form a virtuous cycle. But Moon’s speech seems to reflect an awareness that, over the past year, North Korea-US relations unfortunately haven’t propelled inter-Korean relations and to emphasize his determination not to ignore the unique nature and special characteristics of inter-Korean relations in the future. The South Korean government, Moon effectively said, is going to be more vocal about inter-Korean relations.

Particularly notable is Moon’s remark that “there are also matters that can be accomplished through cooperation between South and North Korea.” Moon provided a concrete list of areas in which such cooperation is feasible: initiating cooperation in border areas, co-hosting the Olympics in 2032, having North Korean athletes compete in the 1st East Asian Weightlifting Championships and the World Table Tennis Championships, discussing a unified team and a joint entrance at the Tokyo Olympics, finding practical ways to move forward with the project of linking inter-Korean highways and railroads, resuming inter-Korean tourism and stimulating tourism to North Korea, creating an international peace zone in the DMZ, jointly registering ssireum, or Korean wrestling, as a UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage, jointly registering the DMZ as a UNESCO World Heritage Site, continuing efforts to resume operations at the Kaesong Industrial Complex and tourism to Mt. Kumgang, co-organizing an event commemorating the June 15 Inter-Korean Joint Declaration, and arranging for Kim Jong-un to pay a reciprocal visit to Seoul.

The proposals that Moon made to North Korea in his speech largely consist of things that could basically be achieved through South and North Korean cooperation, even assuming that the North is still under sanctions. Moon’s reference to border cooperation evokes the example he gave during his keynote address at the Oslo Forum on June 12, 2019, of the border committee established by the Basic Treaty reached by West and East Germany in 1972. During that same address, Moon had emphasized the need for South and North Korea to swiftly take joint action on fires, floods, landslides, outbreaks of infectious disease, infestations, and water pollution occurring in the border area. Such cooperation, in Moons’ view, would span a wide range of areas, including disease control and forestry; society, culture, and sports; and even the economy, which could lead to the reopening of the Kaesong Industrial Complex and the resumption of tours to Mt. Kumgang.

“Moon seems to be saying that the South Korean government will stress the unique nature of inter-Korean relations moving forward, which could help propel North Korea-US dialogue,” said Yang Moo-jin, professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

“While Kim Jong-un emphasized a ‘frontal breakthrough’ in the plenary session, he can be seen as having deferred ‘action.’ In that sense, Kim might give some thought to South Korea’s proposals, and the importance and unique character of inter-Korean relations.”

“Because of the uncertainty of the North Korea-US negotiations, Moon can’t leave inter-Korean relations on the back burner any longer. Moon appears to have been stressing that he might pursue inter-Korean relations alongside support of North Korea-US dialogue or, if necessary, put the priority on inter-Korean relations,” said Hong Min, head of North Korean research at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

No mention of any change in Seoul’s stance on economic sanctions and joint military exercises

Nevertheless, Moon didn’t indicate in his New Year’s speech that South Korea’s government has updated its stance on economic sanctions against North Korea, South Korea’s joint military exercises with the US, or South Korea’s acquisition of state-of-the-art US weaponry. In fact, these issues ― despite being of immense importance to North Korea ― weren’t even mentioned in his speech. That makes it hard to be optimistic about the chances of North Korea accepting the South Korean government’s proposals.

The South Korean government went ahead with joint military exercises with the US last year, though on a reduced scale. Furthermore, it’s reportedly also hesitating to adopt a progressive position about refraining from military exercises while dialogue is underway, out of fear that such a move would fuel attacks about “cracks in the South Korea-US alliance” before the parliamentary elections, which will be held in April.

“What North Korea actually wants to hear is South Korea’s position on matters directly related to security, such as halting its joint military exercises with the US and suspending weapons acquisition. Given the lack of what it wanted to hear, namely hints about autonomy, North Korea isn’t very likely to accept South Korea’s proposals,” predicted an expert on inter-Korean relations who asked to remain anonymous.

By Noh Ji-won, staff reporter

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